I've actually been convinced of Blu-Ray's survival, and of HD-DVD goin' the way of Beta (I originally believed that HD-DVD was the way to go). The protective layer required for the discs may be expensive (5 USD on a current DVD disc), but once it becomes more widespread the cost will plummet, plus it's real tough. Due to how close the data sits to the surface on Blu-Ray discs even a minor scratch can be fatal. To prove the protective quality of this coating they (don't ask me who "they" are, I can't remember) took a screwdriver and carved into the bottom of the disc "THIS DISC WORKS", then put it in a Blu-Ray drive, and it could actually read the data!
Blu-ray also has under development a disc with 8 layers. At 25 gigs per layer, that is certainly nothing to scoff at. Not to mention that Blu-Ray has a transfer rate of 36 mbps (actually, HD-DVD has the same transfer rate, I just thought it was really cool, and worthy of mention).
Despite the initially higher cost I believe that Blu-Ray will prevail. We certainly won't be sticking to regular ol' DVD much longer no matter which medium becomes the standard (or if both survive).
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My little machine:
S423 Pentium 4 1.3Ghz, 4x256 16-bit RIMM RAM, 32MB TNT2 video card. I think it may be time to upgrade...
The upgrade! My machine will soon be a 939 X2 4000+, 4x512 DDR400, and an 8600GTS.
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