If you would get the 7800 (gs?), I think your system would be able to run Oblivion at least at medium settings. Maybe some higher. Depends on what framerate you find acceptable.
I also heard that Oblivion is processor hungry and you can notice a huge difference between 2.0ghz and 2.6ghz in terms of fps.
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Opteron 146 @ 2.8ghz (1.45V), 2GB Kingston Valuram
evga 8800gts 320mb superclocked
250GB hard drive, Razer Copperhead mouse (green)
DFI LanParty UT nF4 Ultra-D, OCZ 520W power supply
XFI XtremeMusic soundcard
Klipsch Promedia 5.1 speakers
19" Samsung Syncmaster 940bw widescreen lcd
Super Lanboy case
3dmark01: >30000, 3dmark05: >10000,
3dmark06: 7300ish
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