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savagenator · 07-27-2006, 04:17 AM

i recently found an old computer built in 1994, with an old IBM 133mhz CPU, the RAM isn't even DDR, its below DDR, and is only 4mb. It has 3 8-bit slots and 4 PCI slots, with no USB and an old .5inch keybaord jack of some sort. Also a 2gb HDD.

Now with that in mind, it was 12 years oldo, and according to moore's law and the law of accelerating return (i dont wanna explain, all you need to know its an exponential curve that technology increases by, and its entirely accurate) in about 2010, we will have a super computer that is as powerful as 1 human brain, and in about 2020, we can buy a computer for $1000 that is as powerful as 1 human brain. In about 2050, we will have a supercomputer that is as powerful as all the human in the world, and by about 2099, we will have a $1000 computer as poweful as all human brains.

This is entirely true and will happen. Human brain is huge, using extreme parrallel processing, but is very slow (its still measured in Hz or something). The reason computer will catch up is becuase they are quite a bit faster and don't have to be as complicated. Right now our $1000 comptuer are about 10,000 times less powerful than one human brain. That is how fast we are going on in technology. We will need more than even a terabyte of RAM.

Source: "The Age of Spiritual Machines" by Ray Kurzweil. Highly recommend reading it.

07-27-2006, 04:17 AM	#7 (permalink)
savagenator Silver Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 100	i recently found an old computer built in 1994, with an old IBM 133mhz CPU, the RAM isn't even DDR, its below DDR, and is only 4mb. It has 3 8-bit slots and 4 PCI slots, with no USB and an old .5inch keybaord jack of some sort. Also a 2gb HDD. Now with that in mind, it was 12 years oldo, and according to moore's law and the law of accelerating return (i dont wanna explain, all you need to know its an exponential curve that technology increases by, and its entirely accurate) in about 2010, we will have a super computer that is as powerful as 1 human brain, and in about 2020, we can buy a computer for $1000 that is as powerful as 1 human brain. In about 2050, we will have a supercomputer that is as powerful as all the human in the world, and by about 2099, we will have a $1000 computer as poweful as all human brains. This is entirely true and will happen. Human brain is huge, using extreme parrallel processing, but is very slow (its still measured in Hz or something). The reason computer will catch up is becuase they are quite a bit faster and don't have to be as complicated. Right now our $1000 comptuer are about 10,000 times less powerful than one human brain. That is how fast we are going on in technology. We will need more than even a terabyte of RAM. Source: "The Age of Spiritual Machines" by Ray Kurzweil. Highly recommend reading it. __________________ My computer: AMD x2 4400+ ($480) Gigabyte ga-k8n-SLI ($90) 2 - 512 mb corsair RAM ($100) 7800 GT ($300) x-dreamer ($50) True power 2 550 Watt ($90) win xp pro, SP2 ($100) total: $1,210 happyness; :D :D :D :D :D Last edited by savagenator; 07-27-2006 at 04:21 AM.