Which technology will be the next to go?

wonderboy1953 said:

That's my style as it briefly states what my post is about. In regards to your technology question, you've answered it yourself as this thread is about the next technology on the way out and from your description, then USB 2.0 fits the bill perfectly as it's hanging by a thread.

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USB 2.0 is pretty much already dead.

i would have to agree that usb 2.0 will be the next to go also probably the next big thing that will come in will be the widespread use of the usb 3.0 header that acually connects to the motherboard itself.

Here are some questions that come to mind:

1) Do you think that USB 3.0 will be improved on?
2) Is there a USB 4.0 on the drawing board?
3) Will Thunderbolt continue to be improved on or will it turn out to be vaporware?

Overall what do you think will happen next?

Nothing truly becomes obsolete, because there is a boatload of people who collect ridiculous amounts of old junk no matter how good or bad it may seem to the rest of us. There's always gonna be some guy willing to pay top dollar for something that he is fond of and identifies with because he grew up using it, such as an Atari 2600 or a CB Radio. He is out there, has nothing better to do with his money than hunt it down and buy it. They even make shows about collectors of various things, that's how bad it's gotten! Some people are hellbent on fighting evolution and refuse to join the bandwagon of the modern day, and prefer to live in the past where it's most comfortable for them. Regarding the new technology coming out vs the old however, if you ask me tried and true beats new and unfamiliar.

...If only computer technology progressed as slow as space technology.

I would be a millionaire with all the old computer parts laying around my room

GaryCantley said:

Not a chance. In St Helens you have probably got broadband to match what is known as slow broadband in the States. i.e. about 10mbps.

Here in deepest Norfolk I currently get 1.1mbps, that is fast compared to some. I can stream video but only to one computer at a time. If I'm downloading a large file (lets say Windows updates after a clean install), the kids are kicked off the net while I download it.

Having said all that, I feel quite good about the speed I get knowing that some users are still not on broadband.

Sticking stuff in a "cloud"? For most, its a long way off

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No, I will explain why we don't have slow broadband

1. We are sat in between two cities, being Manchester and Liverpool. Liverpool is 10 miles away and Manchester just shy of 30. That is to the Centre of each.

2. We have fibre here already.

Sat on Virgin 50Mb/s, and I always get 50 at least, in fact I always get more, I am getting constant 60-65Mb/s

Compared to you, I can be streaming a movie, someone else streaming live TV, someone else gaming, someone else browsing the net, someone else downloading a load of files and all of us on our phones online, and there is 0 stutter. I game competatively, I can stream and play simultaneously, with 4 other users online too, and still get a maximum of 50-60 ping.

At my 50Mb/s, I am getting data down my cable faster than I would be if I were watching a film from my own computer from a Bluray disc.

OnLive is a cloud gaming service, allowing you to play some of the latest games on any system, regardless of graphics performance and with very low processing power. All of it is done from the cloud and all you need is ~6Mb/s connection. That isn't fast at all by todays standards, we had that at home here about 7 years ago, and you aren't going to need anything even close to that if you are using your computer to download pictures or music from the cloud, or even have your whole computer based there.

It won't even need you to have internet to your home at all, it will all be cellular based, like 3G and 4G is now. With 4G, you are looking at speeds of up to 1Gb/s. That is 20 times faster than my internet and 1000 times faster than yours now. Plenty for cloud computing and without a single wire for the end user. Like you do with mobile internet, you would either pay for your time, pay for an allowance at a set speed, or pay for unlimited.

I have spoken to people that are in R&D for large networking companies that set the standards we live with today. I have spoken with one of the people that researched into the 802.11 standard we have now, which is for WiFi technologies and he has stated what myself and everyone in this thread has agreed with - we will, very soon, have no hardware or computers as we know it.

you can already see it with smart phones. Apart from when compared to high-performance computers that do specialty tasks, like gaming, image rendering, video rendering, research etc, what can a smart phone do that a regular computer can't? Most people use their computers for going on the internet, listening to music, maybe watching a film and nothing else. A smart phone, this small device that has, compared to a desktop, very little power, can do all of that. That is the direction in which we are going and which we are already transitioning.

wonderboy1953 said:

Here are some questions that come to mind:

1) Do you think that USB 3.0 will be improved on?
2) Is there a USB 4.0 on the drawing board?
3) Will Thunderbolt continue to be improved on or will it turn out to be vaporware?

Overall what do you think will happen next?

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1) Possibly. If we still have a need for high-speed peripherals, yes it will. If all we need peripherals for are mice, keyboards, printers, etc, no, why would we need anything faster? The only thing taking advantage of the higher speeds is external storage devices. When everything is stored off your system, why improve upon it? Other than to improve power efficiency, there would be no change.

2) See 1. It is likely USB4 already exists and is in testing and improvement, not just on the drawing board. USB 3 has been around for a long time, it is only recently it has hit market though

3) Can't say. Though it shows promise, the better technology doesn't always come out on top. Just look at VHS vs Betamax. Betamax was smaller and had a greater capacity, yet VHS won. The reason? Mainly the porn industry who decided to use VHS and essentially drove away Betamax because the industry transitioned to VHS. A standard was set, even though there was better technology. A standard has been set with USB 3, and breaking that may prove difficult, though not impossible.

Aastii said:

Sat on Virgin 50Mb/s, and I always get 50 at least, in fact I always get more, I am getting constant 60-65Mb/s

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well, the problem is that over here i'm getting ~1 meg a second down, and about 0.2 up.
I'll be staying with my computer for a looonng time, that being the case.

Perkomate said:

well, the problem is that over here i'm getting ~1 meg a second down, and about 0.2 up.
I'll be staying with my computer for a looonng time, that being the case.

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Not as wireless technology becomes cheaper. As 4G, or 5G when released, becomes widespread, the need for you to upgrade will pretty much disappear, you will just have to pay for data limits then everything will be wireless with near enough 100% coverage. Your download speeds will improve 1000 fold and more than enough to allow for cloud computing.

I think USB 2.0 will stick around for a while longer. USB 3.0 is not yet mainstream and who knows when it will be.

CDs/DVDs are definitely the next to go, no doubt.

Calibretto said:

I think USB 2.0 will stick around for a while longer. USB 3.0 is not yet mainstream and who knows when it will be.

CDs/DVDs are definitely the next to go, no doubt.

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CD's are all but dead now anyway apart from for music and for driver discs, both applications which are moving online more and more with less physical music CD sales, and few people installing anything from disc, instead opting to download them themselves and move them around on USB devices