If you guys are interested pls read the followin article is regarding about DDR3
Micron 2Gbit DDR3 ready to go, but demand not there
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Esther Lam, DIGITIMES, Taipei [Thursday 7 June 2007]
With Intel's DDR3-supporting Bearlake chipsets now officially launched, players in the DRAM market will begin their transitions to DDR3 production. Like many other DRAM makers, Micron Technology is on its way to producing DDR3, and the company believes it is in a favorable position to offer competitive pricing and take the lead in the next-generation SDRAM race. However, the transition to DDR3 will not come quickly and will involve support from the entire PC ecosystem, so DDR2 will remain the mainstream for the next few years.
Although Micron has diversified its product offerings to NAND flash and CMOS image sensors, the DRAM maker continues making advancements in the production of DDR2, including the launch of components running at 1066MHz.
Digitimes recently spoke with Micron senior marketing manager of the company's memory group, Kevin Kilbuck about the migration to DDR3, the current status of the DRAM market and Micron's developments within the market.
2Gbit DDR3 ready to go?
Micron's 1Gbit DDR3 is being fabricated on a 78nm process, and the Boise-based chipmaker indicated that the component is now the lowest cost-per-bit solution available on Micron's 78nm 6F squared process, having a smaller die size premium over 512Mbit DDR2. Evaluation samples are already available to selective customers with production slated for early 2008. Micron recently had its 1Gbit DDR3 validated by Intel.
Although the official press release from Micron suggested that 2Gbit DDR3 will only come in 2008, Kilbuck noted that Micron is capable of producing 2Gbit DDR3 any time before then. However, for the highest speed 1600, 1.6GHz version, components will be only available when Micron transitions to next-generation DRAM production geometry, which is 68nm, and that production timeframe is 2009.
Samples of the 2Gbit DDR3 will come in summer 2008 and Micron expects its offerings on 2Gbit DDR3 to coincide with the launch schedule of DDR3-supporting servers, which will probably be in the middle of 2008, Kilbuck said. In light of the price premium of 2Gbit over 1Gbit DDR3, the penetration of 2Gbit DDR3 is expected to first begin in the server market and later extend to general PC users, he added.
No transition to DDR3 until price premium drops to 10-20%
As in the case when the market transitioned from DDR1 to DDR2, one of the key factors affecting the migration to next-generation DRAM should be the corresponding migration to next-generation chipsets. However, although Kilbuck noted that chipset support is obviously a must when starting the transition, the chipset roadmap will probably leave consumers with the most influence in determining the pace of the migration. Kilbuck cited the case of DDR2, where chipsets supported both DDR1 and DDR2, leaving consumers to decide whether they wanted to upgrade their system or not, and he believes this will be the case for DDR3 as well.
During the last transition, it was not until the price gap between the two generations of DRAM shrank to a 10-20% range that a meaningful transition took place. Kilbuck expects this price gap between DDR2 and DDR3 to probably occur in the second half of 2009. So, from the perspective of production, the volume of DDR3 will not surpass DDR2 until 2009. Micron estimates that its output share of DDR3 will be in the range of 5-10% in late 2007 and then climb to 20-25% in the second half of 2008.
DDR2-800 to have better position as mainstream in 2008
Regarding the current trends in the DDR2 market, consumers are not really seeing a performance difference between DDR2-533 and DDR2-667 so prices have evened out between the two segments. Micron noted that 512MB DDR2-667 is dominating shipments at the moment but the company agrees with other major DRAM suppliers that expect 1GB of memory to be the mainstream memory density for systems by the end of the year, given that the price of DRAM is so low these days.
Demand for DDR2-800, which is currently mostly coming from the performance segment or for server applications, will not move into the mainstream until next year. Kilbuck indicated that it will not be until then that Micron is in a better position to drive DDR2-800 as the mainstream DDR2 standard in 2008 in terms of yield. Like other major chip suppliers, Micron does not currently have "super great" yields on DDR2-800 and the company believes that production yield has to reach a really high level in order to eliminate the price premium for the segment and allow it to rise as the mainstream. The company is confidant that it will have its yields enhanced further when it introduces 68nm production.
A leader in 2GB DIMM configurations
In terms of configurations, Kilbuck's observations differed from that coming from the direction of memory module makers. While memory module makers are still seeing two 1GB DIMMs as the mainstream for a 2GB configuration, due to the considerable price premium of 2GB DIMMs, Kilbuck said Micron's quotes for two 1GB DIMMs or one 2GB DIMM are very close, primarily because the modules that Micron produces are built using 1Gbit chips rather than 512Mbit components.
Based on comments from memory module makers in Taiwan – and pricing from late May – the price difference between the two aforementioned configurations can be six times (or more) greater. Therefore, Taiwan module makers are generally conservative about the penetration rate of 2GB DDR2 DIMMs in light of the considerable price gap, as well as the fact that few PC users are looking to add more memory once they have 2GB, so they are not willing to pay such a premium to maintain an available DRAM slot.
During Micron's previous investor conference, the company's vice president of worldwide sales, Michael W. Sadler, noted that Micron's 78nm process has reached yield maturity in record time and, when coupled with its 6F squared circuit design, the company believes that it has a significant die size advantage relative to the competition. This, in addition to the persistent growth of 12-inch wafer production, translates to substantial cost-per-bit reductions and productivity increases.
DRAM price has bottomed out
Although declining to deliver a comment on the cost structure that Micron now has on DRAM production, Kilbuck said prices of DRAM have already bottomed out, given that prices had dropped so low in previous days and it does not feel like prices will go down any further. He added that he expects to see a demand uptick during the summer due to back-to-school demand and this should help spur prices to increase a little.