What happens to general tech progress if

CPu power is stalled for another 20 years?
I'ts been on mind recently. Many have said intel hasnt increased therit capacity due to a lack of comepetition. others have said that we are at silicons limit. I figured it was a mixture of both...

But considering that intel have changed their tick tock. I am inclined to think that its mostly due to silicon limits now. If thats true we are getting no advances until quantum/dan or whatever other techs mature. But I dont recall reading anything that implied that other techs wre anywhere near replacing silicon,

So what happens to general tech progress if cpu power stops advancing.
What fiels would still advance rapidly if any?
 

mistersprinkles

Active Member
CPu power is stalled for another 20 years?
I'ts been on mind recently. Many have said intel hasnt increased therit capacity due to a lack of comepetition. others have said that we are at silicons limit. I figured it was a mixture of both...

But considering that intel have changed their tick tock. I am inclined to think that its mostly due to silicon limits now. If thats true we are getting no advances until quantum/dan or whatever other techs mature. But I dont recall reading anything that implied that other techs wre anywhere near replacing silicon,

So what happens to general tech progress if cpu power stops advancing.
What fiels would still advance rapidly if any?

Silicon limit and optimization limit are fast approaching. Used to be that you just made the transistors switch faster and made some minor optimizations here and there and things kept getting faster. Now we've been stuck at a wall behind 5Ghz for years and years, we can't shrink the production process much further, and we have been optimizing behind that 5Ghz wall for so long that the engineers are running out of ideas.

GPUs continue to advance by leaps and bounds. CPUs not so much.
 

Calin

Well-Known Member
They will increase the core count most likely. I wonder how Intel will react to Ryzen.
 

ian

Administrator
Staff member
Hang on, isnt the millitary supposed to be decades ahead of us? SO what are they using?
That may have been the case once upon a time in the distant past, but I highly doubt that today. It is only the movies that would make you think that.
I think the consumer end is at the cutting edge of technology, not military.
 

beers

Moderator
Staff member
I think the consumer end is at the cutting edge of technology, not military.
I've seen a few rows of cray labeled racks in a secure NSA facility. I'd say the cutting edge is definitely more on the hosted/data center and enterprise side :p
 

Agent Smith

Well-Known Member
Hang on, isnt the millitary supposed to be decades ahead of us? SO what are they using?


I've read that the NSA has contracts with server manufactures to make sure they get the best servers beyond what is available to the consumer market. Whether that's true or not I don't know.
 
Ok I havnt read any articles indicating that germanium quantum or whatever are close to maturing. So.. perhaps there will be another decade of stagnation.
 

mistersprinkles

Active Member
I wonder if Intel's Xpoint technology can be harnessed for computation rather than just storage and if there is some potential there. (Should be possible? At least in my opinion based on limited technological understanding)
 
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