The Future of Computers.

[kirilltch]

I've been doing a research for school about the progress of technology (mainly computers) in the last couple of decades. And something strange came up. In the beginning the development was very fast from 66mhz P1 to P4 1500Mhz and higher. But know the computers aren't getting much faster. The processor speed stopped increasing so dramaticly...It seems to me that they are reaching the limit of what they can do with the technology that is now available. And so instead of creating something new they just start doubling stuff. DualCore processors, SLI videocards, SLI motherboards, Duel PSU, Sata harddiscs...
I wonder whats next. 3 processors? Or are they going to invent something new (maybe something smaller than nano technology). Or are they going to run in a wall, and for a time everything will be still.
Just imagine. No more upgrading your system because it is slow. No more worriing when buying new parts, if they are going be any good in half a year.

 

[Praetor]

In the beginning the development was very fast from 66mhz P1 to P4 1500Mhz and higher

Can you give a timescope on "beginning"?

And so instead of creating something new they just start doubling stuff. DualCore processors, SLI videocards, SLI motherboards, Duel PSU, Sata harddiscs...

1. Dual PSUs have been around for a long time
2. SLI has been around for a long time
3. How is SATA a doubling effect?

I wonder whats next. 3 processors? Or are they going to invent something new (maybe something smaller than nano technology). Or are they going to run in a wall, and for a time everything will be still.

Timeframe?

 

[kirilltch]

1. Dual PSUs have been around for a long time
2. SLI has been around for a long time
3. How is SATA a doubling effect?


QUOTE]

1. Yes it has been around for some time, but it was a start of things to come.
2. If SLI has been around for such a long time than how come almost none of the games fully support it?
3. Instead of making a new type of storage system they made it possible to write something on two harddiscs at the same time, so that the speed is greatly increased (i do not dare to say that the speed is doubled because i dont know the exact numbers).

 

[kirilltch]

Can you give a timescope on "beginning"?

Timeframe?

march 22, 1993 - Pentium 1:
Process: 0.8 micron
Transistor Count: 3.1 million
Clock speed at introduction: 60 and 66 MHz
Cache sizes: L1: 8K instruction, 8K data

November 1, 1995 - Pentium Pro:
Process: 0.60/0.35 micron
Transistor count: 5.5 million
Clock speed at introduction: 150, 166, 180, and 200MHz
L1 cache size: 8K instruction, 8K data
L2 cache size: 256K or 512K (on-die)
Features: No MMX

May 7, 1997 - Pentium 2:
Process: 0.35 micron
Transistor count: 7.5 million
Clock speed at introduction: 233, 266, and 300 MHz
L1 cache size: 16K instruction, 16K data
L2 cache size: 512K (off-die)
Features: MMX

February 26, 1999 - Pentium 3:
Process: 0.25 micron
Transistor count: 9.5 million
Clock speed at introduction: 450 and 500MHz
L1 cache size: 16K instruction, 16K data
L2 cache size: 512K (on-die)
Features: MMX, SSE, processor serial number

April 23, 2001 - Pentium 4:
Process: 0.18 micron
Transistor Count: 42 million
Clock speed at introduction: 1.7GHz
Cache sizes: L1: ~16K instruction,16K data
Features: hyperthreading added in 2002

March 12, 2003 - Pentium M:
Process: 0.13 micron
Transistor Count: 77 million
Clock speed at introduction: 600MHz, 900MHz, 1.1GHz, 1.2GHz, 1.3GHz, 1.4GHz, 1.5GHz, and 1.6GHz with 400MHz
Cache sizes: L1: 32K instruction, 32K data, 1MB L2

February 4, 2004 - Pentium 4 (Prescott):
Process: 0.09 micron
Transistor Count: 125 million
Clock speed at introduction: 2.8GHz, 3.0GHz, 3.2GHz, 3.4GHz
Cache sizes: L1: ~16K instruction, 16K data, 1MB L2

 

[kirilltch]

I wonder whats next. 3 processors? Or are they going to invent something new (maybe something smaller than nano technology). Or are they going to run in a wall, and for a time everything will be still.

They are already squeezing pretty much everything they can out of the current technology, I don’t think (my own opinion = not proven fact) they can do something like 5/6 GHz with what they are using now by keeping everything “normal”(normal = no ridicules things like strapping a huge cooler the size of a computer on top of the CPU)

 

[Ctcoyote16]

nano technology isnt going to come for a while (nano is like 1 billionith of an inch or something)

 

[dragon2309]

3. Instead of making a new type of storage system they made it possible to write something on two harddiscs at the same time, so that the speed is greatly increased (i do not dare to say that the speed is doubled because i dont know the exact numbers).

Ermm..... no, thats RAID, SATA is just a staorage interface, like IDE, SATA does provide hgher transfer rates but thats all due to technology advancing, RAID is a disk configuration where you connect more than one drive in an array to help with efficiency and data security. SATA is an interface like USB or PS/2 not an array.

 

[/_\MECCA/_\]

Sometimes I wonder how fast can systems process data......is 1 trillionth of a spilt second too long for some?...How Fast is Fast for computer users out there? A few years ago 900mhz was VERY FAST...now we got 3.9 Ghz...that's 3 times more then what most people think is VERY FAST.....Is someone gonna make "breakthrough Technology" that promos computers to go 20.5 GHZ with 9.6 GB of RAM & 2,000 GB on a HD in 10 years?...if so that's ridiculous & wild!!

 

[Ctcoyote16]

Sometimes I wonder how fast can systems process data......is 1 trillionth of a spilt second too long for some?...How Fast is Fast for computer users out there? A few years ago 900mhz was VERY FAST...now we got 3.9 Ghz...that's 3 times more then what most people think is VERY FAST.....Is someone gonna make "breakthrough Technology" that promos computers to go 20.5 GHZ with 9.6 GB of RAM & 2,000 GB on a HD in 10 years?...if so that's ridiculous & wild!!

of course it will happen, and then we'll think how we ever lived without it. And then tell our children how we were deprived and only had 3.9 GHz TOPS, lol

 

[34erd]

with 9.6 GB of RAM & 2,000 GB on a HD in 10 years?

They have those right now.

 

[TooMuchButtHair]

Some think the cell is the next big thing, and others think the key to the future (of computers) is multi-cored processors - and by multi-cored, I don't mean one or two, I mean twenty or thirty. Of course, you'll have to design software to work with these extremely multi-cored processors, but once you do, you will be able to do amazing things.

As for the future of computer gaming, I think it's going to reach it's absolute height (graphically) in less than 5 years. After that, it'll just be how big the game is (i.e., MMORPG's.). Could you imagine an MMORPG where you could explore an entire state, continent or even planet? Or with 1000 people at the same time (providing internet connections stay up with the times).

 

[Motoxrdude]

Yea i think the future of computers is definate. They'll probly come out with two computers in one and the mobos are some how "sli(you know what i mean)". I think the speeds of Cpu's will probably be limited to about 20Ghz because of how fast electricity goes, but who knows. As for hard drives, there history, i say in 15 years they will be like tape drives, only used for back ups. I think they will have only Ram, and a self contained battery unit to provide power to the ram to keep the data there. This does makes sense because hard drives are very limited to ther transfer rates. As for video cards, they will only probably need to be about 15ghz, because graphics will look real life, and you wont notice any graphics gain. Hell, maybe PC's are going to be history. Maybe all it will be is few super computers, and all your connections(mouse,speakers,monitor,mouse) will be connected to it. Hell, you wont need all those, it will be controlled with your mind

 

[Praetor]

Yes it has been around for some time, but it was a start of things to come.

This is why i asked you for a timescale, redundant power has been around ever since the first serious servers were created .... so what kinds of things to come?

If SLI has been around for such a long time than how come almost none of the games fully support it?

1. SLI has to support games. Games do not have to support SLI
2. Might wanna have a look at VIDEO CARD 101

Instead of making a new type of storage system they made it possible to write something on two harddiscs at the same time, so that the speed is greatly increased (i do not dare to say that the speed is doubled because i dont know the exact numbers).

Granted, on a technicality: but 99% of the time, the ATA5/AT6 spec can handle two harddrives without a hitch .. its only when you start doing very specialized stuff that you might notice a difference

In response to post4, wouldnt it be more accurate toe set the beginning closer to 1970?

They are already squeezing pretty much everything they can out of the current technology, I don’t think (my own opinion = not proven fact) they can do something like 5/6 GHz with what they are using now by keeping everything “normal”(normal = no ridicules things like strapping a huge cooler the size of a computer on top of the CPU)

Possibly: although with 65nm done and done and 45nm being developed, i wouldnt say 5-6GHz being impossible (for "normal sized cooling" as u put it)

nano technology isnt going to come for a while (nano is like 1 billionith of an inch or something)

Well the traces on my processor are 90nanometers in width...

Ermm..... no, thats RAID, SATA is just a staorage interface, like IDE, SATA does provide hgher transfer rates but thats all due to technology advancing, RAID is a disk configuration where you connect more than one drive in an array to help with efficiency and data security. SATA is an interface like USB or PS/2 not an array.

I see your point but technically he's correct: SATA gets rid of this master-slave deal (thus improving concurrent transfer rates albeit potentialy unnoticeably) however he was wrong in saying that it allowed for concurrent transfers

 

[kirilltch]

Haha, here we are, almost three years later and look where we have come...quad core is very normal this days. There are dual quad cores out there (and i am not talking about those supper computers the size of a room). Video cards can work in pairs, or 3, or 4 together...
Now the question stands. Will anyone be brave enough to predict even further in the future???

 

[alexyu]

I never knew about this thread.
I think that after another three years, there will be processors with 16 cores and peple will have 3 8800gt 1gb video cards because games will require at least 1 gb video memory.
Flash memories and racetracks will replace HDDs and OSes will take minimum 100gb.
The DVDs will be replaced by HD VMDs, BDs or HD DVDs.
This is all I can predict.

 

[lovely?]

the future has already been predicted. i forgot who said it but a very long time ago (back when vacuum tubes were in style i believe,) someone said that computers would continually double in speed every two years. this has held true even today. i dont care what the means are, computers are still becoming more powerful, and basically the prediction has held true.

im guessing that the increases in speed are limited, but by the time that happens im not so sure that processor speed is gonna matter. a brand new computer will be able to run anything, lag is non-existent, because programs are no longer enough to stress computers to the extent of causing lag. i guess im saying computers will be like xbox 360's or ps3's, programs made for computers will just run, and it will be as simple as that.

at least thats my theory.

 

[robot_bride]

I can't really add that much myself, but I know that apparently nano technology "scientists" have been expecting to come to a dead end - so to speak - for several years. A stage where they can't control the efficiency of the electrical part because it's so small. But they haven't reached that stage yet. I guess I sort of rambled on but I'm trying to say that from what I've heard nano technology is coming along fine with parts getting smaller every year.

Great observation by the way!

 

[bit4bit]

I skim read this thread, so I don't know if these things have already been mentioned, but Moore's law predicts the exponential growth of computing power with time, and as far as I know we are still following that curve. With more recent technology, there are more factors that contribute to the overall power of a system, and so perhaps incrementing small changes in different areas, adds up to a good increase in power. For example, clock speeds aren't the only thing.

Also molecular electronics will be the next big thing I reckon...bonding organic molecules together with conductive gold atoms, so as to create a molecular network of electronic switches similar to transistors. From what I know, IBM already has the technology to literally move, place, and connect individual atoms together.

Edit: robot bride: I have also heard alot about a technological singularity, which apparently is predicted within the next 100-200 years, though I have never bothered to look into it....might just be some stoned conspiracy theorist cooking up wacky theories and spreading them on the internet...or not?...perhaps there are some relibable proponents?

 

[steve_david26@ya]

Future of computer systems !!

Well no one can deny the fact that computer system are slowly spreading all over the world and one day will come when human will see himself totally dependent upon it. Previously it was huge say Apples Macintosh. but now technology have changed resulting in compacting the size of the computer systems..
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Mike
Social Media Marketing - 684565099.41459
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[PabloTeK]

I heard a quote the other day that technological knowlege will double every 3 days by 2010. I don't think in 10 years time computers will be the same as what they are now, they'll either have really tiny components or someone will have got a concept such as Quantum Computing down to an affordable scale. Manufacturers are having to impress with the green effort at the moment. Intel boast about how the Atom CPU's only use 3 watts of power and SSD manufacturers making a big thing about the power effeciency over a standard HDD.

I'm thinking that in the shorter term GPU's and CPU's will become integrated for more basic operations at least. AMD's Fusion technology aims to combine these two components together and it could be a big hit with businesses because in business you want to spend the least amount of possible while being productive and if you can save power with the computers in the modern society of rising fuel costs then you can seriously improve your cashflow. Perhaps computers will turn into a single chip that does just about everything, who knows?